The NFL bye week is really a factor many recreational gamers don’t pay enough focus on. If you consider your novice sports bettor, and you also spot the sort of betting line which includes you quickly going to Google News as well as your favorite sports stat site to ascertain if a player is injured, don’t forget also to notice in the event that team’s opponent is on its way off a bye. For anyone advanced sports bettors battling with the bye week, I’ll cover some more impressive range research and insights about the bye in this post. Just before getting to that particular, I’ll address some general points for everyone uncertain exactly what a bye week is, or on what weeks teams have byes.
As you may probably know, sbobet online is made up of each team playing 16 games. Back in 1990, the league changed into a 17 week season as a way to profit more from television advertising. This left each team with a single week off at some point in the season known as a bye week. The bye week was previously random spanning on the entire season, but in 2004 to generate a more uniform agenda for the playoff race, the format was changed. The way it works now is bye weeks always fall between weeks 4 and 10. Being a sports bettor, you’ll have to pay extra attention during weeks 5-11 for teams coming off a bye, as they have the main benefit of extra time to relax, improve your health, practice and prepare.
Basically we won’t include this inside our analysis, another area recreational bettors need to pay attention to is Thursday games. Starting week 10 of the NFL season there is a single Thursday night game, and so on Thanksgiving there are 2 additional Thursday day games. Consequently on Thursday, teams are frequently playing on short rest, which is often the case for both teams; so it will be not something to be concerned about. Where it becomes a problem will be the following week. Here, teams are coming off added rest and may gain a similar benefit to usually the one they have from the bye week. Make certain when creating bets in the NFL to spend attention both to teams coming off the bye, as well as to teams coming off a Thursday game.
Given that this isn’t an article about statistical handicapping models, a subject which 95% of readers might find too advanced, I won’t enter into it in much more detail than to make a single statement then support it. That statement: the better a team is, the better they gain benefit from the bye week. This may not be a theory, but something well quantified via statistical analysis how the best odds makers understand. To offer you a small clue, the modifier for teams coming off a bye can be a multiplier according to power rankings. All teams gain benefit from the bye week, but just how much they benefit is proportional to how good of any team they may be.
If the above statement is in all confusing, don’t sweat it. I’ll share some elementary stats about how well teams coming off of the bye week have fared that may help you understand the lines just a little better.
On the four most current seasons (2007-2010), in games where just one single team is coming from the bye, the team coming off of the bye carries a record of 65-54-1 straight up, and 61-44-5 versus the spread.
Now, if you’re considering betting teams coming off of the bye as the past four years they’ve covered 58.1% of the time, read my article on the current betting market. A process including that could have worked in 2006; but, more likely than not, this trend won’t continue. It is because today NFL betting line is a lot more efficient, and also the market will almost certainly correct itself.
The standard ATS info is nice, but it really doesn’t inform us much unless we break it down further. After the process, a much more interesting trend appears. Utilizing the same 110 game sample, teams coming from the bye week which are favored have a record of 48-12 straight up and 36-20-4 ATS, while underdogs coming off of the bye use a record of 17-32-1 straight up and 25-24-1 ATS.
The sample size on road favorites is quite small, but 15-1-2 up against the spread is massively impressive, nonetheless. To talk about a remote stat away from a write-up I wrote a couple of dexmpky72 back, from 1990 to 2008 (across a 150 game sample size), road favored teams coming off a bye week covered the spread nearly 70% of the time.
To go back to and acquire better four year numbers for all those favorites coming away from the bye, you can find 9 games missing in the 110 sample size I used. It is because 9 times since 2007 there were games where both teams were coming from the bye. (32×4=128), I purchased the 110 sample size because 18 of the byes were not connected to opening discussion.
The information here strongly supports that good teams benefit from the bye a lot more than the market is offering them credit for. I have faith that that because only good teams are favored on the road from the NFL. Using just road favorites is a little quirky, however, plus some might consider it “data mining”, even though this trend is well founded when dating back much beyond 2007. If we’re likely to really look at this in depth, though, we have to examine subsets of all the favorites disregarding home and away, as that’s that are part of the spread.